Stock market uncertainty is real?

My recent conversation with an investor, whom I consider one of the most knowledgeable people around.

AN = Author; IN = Investor

AN: Is the stock market really showing signs of a significant correction, or even, prolonged downturn?

IN: It depends.

AN: Where is the real danger from?

AN: How would that “drift to stampede” manifest?

IN: As a collapse in Duration.

AN: Like the one we have now?

We messed up, and then we lied about it, at least to Americans.

Nobody would tell you that story the way we would tell the same story about another country, but there it is. That simple.

AN: Was that a bad thing?

AN: So, what is happening now?

The longer effect depends on the level the process bottoms at. If levels are triggered such that “real money” (huge, long-only institutions) are compelled to sell by mandate, e.g. via risk-parity strategies, which might rebalance away from equity if the price fell too fast, because of too much volatility in that asset class.

AN: That would not be good.

And the stock market is just free masonry, no mortar. Often the difference in quake severity is simply how long it lasts, not how hard it shakes. But there is a tremor in the Treasury market right now; not sure it’s over.

AN: How bad could it be?

IN: Worse that you want to imagine; see 1979; on Steroids.

Yes, uncertainty is very real.

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